Letter to EWR Subscribers

From Richard Maybury,   September 19, 2001

People invest on the basis of what they think they see.

Most have at least a little understanding of economics, but the word geopolitics¹ isn't even in their vocabularies. They look at the investment markets and factor in the risks of a recession, because a recession is what they can envision. They have no idea about the implications of a guerrilla war in Central Asia.

The war has already begun.

I believe that in general, as long as investors continue with this exclusively economic view, prices of stocks, raw materials and most other investments will trend downward. After events have forced them to start getting educated about things EWR subscribers have understood for years, they will factor the war into their bids, and defense stocks and raw materials will skyrocket.

I have not sold any of my defense stocks or raw materials stocks, and I probably won't for years. But, I am comfortable with this risk because these stocks are a small percentage of my portfolio. If you have a large percentage of your money in these war speculations, my advice is to take profits when the opportunity arises.

Thank you for your support all these long years. It is too bad we could not head off this disaster.

¹Geopolitics: The study of the relationship among politics, geography, military forces, demography and economics, especially in regard to a government's foreign policy.