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26-Sep-03
A good way to judge the seriousness of a guerrilla war is by the frequency of mortar attacks.
Reports of rocket propelled grenades (RPGs), rifles, landmines and simple booby traps may not mean much. These can be used with little or no training, so they might only be indicative of lone hotheads who are bored and just looking for excitement.
Mortars indicate training and, in most cases, teamwork.
A mortar is a tube pointed upward. A mortar shell, which resembles an aircraft bomb, is dropped into the tube. It slides downward to the bottom and hits a firing pin, which detonates a charge. The charge propels the shell into the air, where the shell follows an arc, falling on the target. Wind and the direction and angle of the tube determine where the shell will land.
Typically in a guerrilla war, a mortar team will aim the weapon from a concealed spot. In a flurry of highly choreographed movement, they will drop a dozen or more shells into the tube in rapid succession, then pick up the mortar, run away, and disappear.
For maximum safety, the team tries to be on the run before the first shell hits the ground. This means their success is judged according to two criteria: how many shells were put in the air before the team ran and, did they hit the target?
Mortars require extensive defenses. A stone wall or hole in the ground is not enough. The mortar shell comes down from above, so a shelter with an extremely strong roof is necessary.
Worse, a mortar threat means the surrounding territory must be controlled 360 degrees out to the range of the mortar, which can be anywhere from a half-mile for light mortars to more than three miles for heavy mortars.
If the guerrillas are using only RPGs, etc. then the need to control territory may not be great. But, the appearance of a single mortar creates the need for total control of at least a square mile. This means, mortar attacks greatly increase the need for troops, and the expense of training and fielding them.
In other words, a single mortar crew of two or three men can create the need for hundreds more occupation troops.
Do the math. An increasing number of mortar attacks means the war is growing worse at an exponential rate.
So, to judge the seriousness of the war, watch for news of mortar attacks.
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